{"id":1792,"date":"2026-06-12T20:10:59","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T20:10:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=1792"},"modified":"2026-06-12T20:10:59","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T20:10:59","slug":"golds-record-rally-falters-as-bulls-run-into-fed-rate-expectations-stronger-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=1792","title":{"rendered":"Gold&#8217;s record rally falters as bulls run into Fed rate expectations, stronger dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><div><div><ul><li>Summary<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><\/div><\/div><div>LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) &#8211; Expectations for U.S. monetary tightening and a strong dollar have \u200btaken some wind out of the &#8220;perfect storm&#8221; powering an upswing in gold since 2023, leaving prices in vulnerable \u200cterritory around $4,000 per ounce as the interest rate backdrop unfolds.<\/div><div>Gold&#8217;s reversal has raised questions over the longevity of its record-breaking rally even as geopolitical risk, fiscal deficits and central bank buying continue to support the longer-term case for bullion.<\/div><div>After hitting a record $5,595 in January, spot gold has fallen 25%, \u200bas the Iran war spurred an oil-price rally and boosted bets on rate hikes. That has curbed bullion&#8217;s safe-haven appeal \u2014 consistent \u200bwith past extreme shocks \u2014 and drove prices to a six-month low on Thursday.<\/div><div>&#8220;In the very short \u2060term, the market has to digest the risk of a Fed hike and a stronger dollar,&#8221; said Aakash Doshi, head \u200bof gold and metals strategy at State Street Investment Management.<\/div><div>Doshi sees scope for gold to bounce if the Middle East conflict eases \u200band oil falls to $80 a barrel. Longer term, gold could revert to being a safe haven as fiscal deficits balloon and if the fallout from the Iran conflict leads to fragmented geopolitics.<\/div><h2>KEY TECHNICAL BREAK<\/h2><div>Gold was at $4,188 per troy ounce on Friday, having touched its lowest level since November at $4,022 \u200bon Thursday.<\/div><div>Strong U.S. jobs data last week lifted rate-hike bets and sent gold below its 200-day moving average for the first \u200btime in 2-1\/2 years.<\/div><div>That closely watched key technical level \u2014 now acting as resistance at $4,446 \u2014 suggests that the dynamic of the market has changed, one \u200cprecious \u2060metals trader said. Gold surged 64% in 2025, the most in 46 years.<\/div><div>The metal&#8217;s record run higher in recent years was driven by strong central bank buying and safe-haven demand as investors sought to mitigate risks tied to U.S. President Donald Trump&#8217;s trade tariffs, Federal Reserve independence and Russia&#8217;s war in Ukraine.<\/div><div>&#8220;While analysts were fixated on Trump&#8217;s new world disorder, it now seems that last \u200byear&#8217;s huge gains were driven \u200bin good part by rate-cut \u2060expectations,&#8221; said Adrian Ash, head of research at online marketplace BullionVault.<\/div><div>Managed short positions on COMEX gold were at the lowest since January 2025 in the week to June 2, leaving plenty of \u200bscope for bearish bets to build up, according to Ash.<\/div><div>Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper estimates \u200bthat at least \u2060270 tons of gold in exchange-traded funds are in loss-making territory at prices below $4,250.<\/div><div>At $4,000, that number will rise to 298 tons. Outflows from gold-backed ETFs totalled 16 tons in May and 7 tons in the first week of June.<\/div><div>While investors are sidelined, physical demand \u2060is seasonally \u200bsluggish with bullion trading at a deep discount in India.<\/div><div>Nicky Shiels, head of metals \u200bstrategy at MKS PAMP, expects gold prices to be rangebound over the next few months &#8220;before more strategic tailwinds and catalysts emerge&#8221;.<\/div><div><address><div><div><noscript>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"120\" height=\"120\" alt=\"Polina Devitt\" class=\"wp-image-1791\" src=\"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/b748e1aba3b071e5d5c5c849186ac4cb.avif\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/noscript><\/div><div>Polina Devitt<\/div><\/div><div><ul><li><span><div><svg><title>Email<\/title><\/svg><\/div><\/span><\/li><li><span><div><svg><title>X<\/title><\/svg><\/div><\/span><\/li><li><span><div><svg><title>Linkedin<\/title><\/svg><\/div><\/span><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/address><\/div><\/div><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=1789\">Heavy trading expected when SpaceX options launch in coming days<\/a><\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=1787\">Oil nears two-month lows on reports of imminent US-Iran peace deal<\/a><\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=1785\">Explainer: SpaceX\u2019s IPO includes a \u201cgreenshoe\u201d option \u2013 here\u2019s what that means<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expectations for U.S. monetary tightening and a strong dollar have \u200btaken some wind out of the &#8220;perfect storm&#8221; powering an upswing in gold since 2023, leaving prices in vulnerable \u200cterritory around $4,000 per ounce as the interest rate backdrop unfolds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1790,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-1792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-china"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - 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