{"id":2043,"date":"2026-06-15T14:11:17","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T14:11:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=2043"},"modified":"2026-06-15T14:11:17","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T14:11:17","slug":"gulf-recalibrates-as-iran-emerges-intact-from-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=2043","title":{"rendered":"Gulf recalibrates as Iran emerges intact from war"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>Summary<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>BEIRUT, June 15 (Reuters) &#8211; The U.S.-Iran deal may silence the guns, but it cannot alter the verdict of more than three months of war.<\/div>\n<div>The region has emerged from one of its most dangerous crises in decades with the balance of power broadly unchanged, Iran politically emboldened, and \u200bGulf confidence in U.S. protection deeply shaken, Gulf sources, diplomats and analysts say.<\/div>\n<div>Iran remains a formidable and undefeated force capable of threatening Gulf Arab states and global energy flows, they say, while the United States has \u200cagain revealed the limits of military power against a resilient adversary.<\/div>\n<div>For Washington, the deal offers an exit from a costly confrontation that failed to deliver its most ambitious objectives &#8212; from forcing Tehran\u2019s capitulation to dismantling its nuclear and missile capabilities, the sources add. For Iran, it amounts to something equally significant: survival.<\/div>\n<div>After absorbing relentless U.S. and Israeli strikes, the Islamic Republic emerges battered but standing, preserving both its political establishment and much of the leverage that brought the parties to the table.<\/div>\n<div>\u201c\u2018Epic Fury\u2019 has been an epic disaster,\u201d said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. official and negotiator, referring to the U.S.-Israeli campaign launched on \u200bIran on February 28 that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and top officials.<\/div>\n<h2>SHOCK TO SUNNI GULF STATES<\/h2>\n<div>The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), to be signed on Friday, provides for a 60-day cessation of hostilities during which the two sides will negotiate \u200ba permanent settlement, including disputes over Iran\u2019s enriched uranium stockpile.<\/div>\n<div>The sharpest shock, however, is being felt in the Sunni Arab Gulf states, where the stability behind decades of economic growth has been sharply \u2060challenged. By this measure, they are the war&#8217;s main losers: spectators to decisions that reshaped their security landscape, now left to absorb the fallout.<\/div>\n<div>The deal, Gulf sources say, has already begun to reshape Gulf strategic thinking, eroding confidence in U.S. protection, entrenching Iran as \u200ban enduring regional force, and accelerating a shift toward accommodation rather than confrontation.<\/div>\n<div>A senior Gulf government source put it bluntly: any de-escalation is positive, but the situation is unequivocally worse than before the war.<\/div>\n<div>The emerging deal also appears unfavourable to Israel, according to three \u200bIsraeli officials, as it omits its core demands, including dismantling Iran\u2019s enrichment capability and curbs on its missile programme.<\/div>\n<div>Officials said Israel was caught off guard when U.S. President Donald Trump signalled on Thursday that a deal was close, highlighting its limited influence over the terms. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raised the issue directly with Trump, according to a statement from his office, which stressed that Israel was not party to the agreement and outlined its conditions for a final deal &#8212; ending Iran&#8217;s nuclear ambitions.<\/div>\n<div>Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir rejected the deal, saying Israel was not bound by it &#8220;in any way.&#8221;<\/div>\n<h2>GULF \u200bCAPITALS SHIFT TOWARDS ENGAGEMENT WITH TEHRAN<\/h2>\n<div>The agreement may end this phase of the conflict, Gulf sources say, but it does not resolve the strategic dilemma it has exposed: Iran remains a potent force, the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a recurring pressure point, \u200band the assumptions underpinning Gulf economies look more fragile than at any point in recent memory.<\/div>\n<div>For Gulf states, the U.S.-Israeli campaign has triggered precisely the consequences they had long feared: Iranian strikes on energy and civilian infrastructure and disruption to Hormuz, dealing a heavy economic blow.<\/div>\n<div>Gulf capitals \u200cmay welcome a \u2060pause in fighting, but many are drawing a sobering conclusion: neither U.S. nor Israeli force has removed the Iranian challenge, while the costs of confrontation have fallen disproportionately on those caught in between.<\/div>\n<div>\u201cMore and more Gulf states are coming to realise that Iran is here to stay, that it retains the capacity to disrupt the regional order,\u201d said Middle East scholar Fawaz Gerges.<\/div>\n<div>\u201cThe Gulf states don\u2019t trust Iran. They had hoped the United States would bring about regime change. The reverse has happened,\u201d Gerges said. \u201cNow more and more Gulf rulers realise they cannot depend on the U.S., or Israel to deliver security or stability.\u201d<\/div>\n<div>That reassessment marks a deeper shift. Gulf states have long distrusted Iran but relied on U.S. power to contain it. Now, engagement with Tehran has already begun.<\/div>\n<div>Gulf capitals have intensified contacts with \u200bTehran lately, seeking economic and security understandings to reduce the risk \u200bof confrontation, regional sources say.<\/div>\n<div>Before the war, the central \u2060regional question was the scope of Arab\u2013Israeli normalisation, Gerges said. In its aftermath, the focus is shifting toward Gulf-Iran accommodation.<\/div>\n<div>While Washington will remain an indispensable partner, regional analysts say the conflict is likely to accelerate a quiet but consequential realignment, with Gulf states diversifying defence ties and hedging against future shocks.<\/div>\n<h2>WASHINGTON&#8217;S OBJECTIVES MISSED<\/h2>\n<div>Saudi analyst Abdulaziz Sager is more explicit. In his view, Washington has failed to deliver \u200bits declared objectives from regime change to curbing Iran\u2019s nuclear program, while handing Tehran two new points of strategic leverage &#8212; the weaponisation of Hormuz and the ability to directly threaten Gulf \u200bstates.<\/div>\n<div>&#8220;They (the Americans) switched from unconditional surrender \u2060to an MOU. They caved in,&#8221; said Sager, Chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center. &#8220;They said they would change the Iranian regime &#8212; they couldn\u2019t. They said they would resolve the missile and nuclear file &#8212; that didn\u2019t happen.\u201d<\/div>\n<div>What is being signed, analysts say, is less a peace accord than a mechanism to halt the fighting.<\/div>\n<div>At its core, fundamental disputes remain unresolved: Iran\u2019s enriched uranium, enrichment levels, sanctions relief, security guarantees, and control of key waterways.<\/div>\n<div>The MoU, Miller argues, is not a resolution but \u201ca ticket to negotiation\u201d &#8212; a first phase that buys time and space for \u2060talks whose success \u200bis far from guaranteed. Its structure echoes the Gaza ceasefire frameworks: a pause that defers the hardest issues, with no guarantee they will ever be resolved.<\/div>\n<div>&#8220;What \u200bis about to be signed is not peace, but recognition: that the war\u2019s ambitions outran its achievements; that the battlefield produced a stalemate, and that Gulf states, which bore the heaviest costs, are recalibrating their security on shakier ground than at any point in time,&#8221; said Miller.<\/div>\n<div>Having withstood both internal unrest and external military \u200bpressure, he argues that Iran now faces a different question: whether this war has reinforced, rather than weakened, its sense of resilience, with implications for deterrence in the years ahead.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=2041\">Netanyahu and Trump on collision course as US, Iran agree to halt war<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=2039\">France, Britain push Hormuz mission as truce nears, but Iran\u2019s stance key<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=2037\">Retail investors face tighter limits than funds in SpaceX IPO flipping<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S.-Iran deal may silence the guns, but it cannot alter the verdict of more than three months of war.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2042,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[6],"class_list":["post-2043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-middle-east"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - 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