{"id":2633,"date":"2026-06-22T04:40:11","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T04:40:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=2633"},"modified":"2026-06-22T04:40:11","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T04:40:11","slug":"trumps-iran-folly-opens-slim-path-to-safer-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=2633","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s Iran folly opens slim path to safer world"},"content":{"rendered":"
MANI, GREECE, June 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) – The United States called its attack on Iran \u201cOperation Epic Fury\u201d. Now that Washington has signed a ceasefire deal with Tehran that secures none of its original aims, it looks more like an epic folly. While that is bad for the U.S. and President Donald Trump, the conflict opens a slim path to a safer world.<\/div>
The war has caused great hardship and brings many \u200bdangers from the Middle East to China and Russia. Still the failure of United States and its ally Israel shows aggression against a weaker opponent does not always pay. With Europe a surprising \u200cwinner from the conflict, a better global balance of power is just possible.<\/div>
The three-and-a-half-month conflict may have increased three geopolitical risks. The first is that Iran could emerge stronger after surviving a massive onslaught from the world\u2019s superpower. With Washington unlikely to want to restart hostilities, Tehran may have a freer hand to threaten its neighbours in the Gulf and Israel.<\/div>
Second, the global balance of power has shifted in China\u2019s favour. Beijing has presented itself as a reliable partner which follows international law at a time when Washington has gone rogue. An increase in China\u2019s clout \u200bis dangerous because the People\u2019s Republic has also thrown its weight around \u2014 both in territorial disputes with its neighbours such as Taiwan and the Philippines and by using economic coercion with, among others, the European Union (EU) and Japan.<\/div>
Third, the Iran war \u200bhas been mildly positive for Russia. The sharply higher oil price combined with the relaxation of U.S. sanctions against its hydrocarbon exports have temporarily refilled the Kremlin\u2019s coffers.<\/div>

SILVER LININGS<\/h2>
Despite these \u2060dangers, the war has silver linings. For a start, both the U.S.\u2019s and Israel\u2019s wings have been clipped.<\/div>
Trump is looking increasingly like a spent volcano. The war has been unpopular with the voters and prediction markets now suggest his Republican Party may lose<\/svg>, opens new tab<\/span> \u200bits narrow majority in both houses of Congress in November\u2019s mid-term elections. Some Republican members of Congress now oppose the president on both domestic and foreign policy.<\/div>
Trump will continue to huff and puff. But further large-scale aggression seems less likely. In particular, \u200bthe risk that he will invade Greenland, as he threatened to do in January, has diminished.<\/div>
Meanwhile, Israel will find it harder to lash out against its enemies because it will not be able to rely so much on the United States. Support for Israel has declined<\/svg>, opens new tab<\/span> across the U.S. political spectrum, both as a result of the Iran War and Gaza conflict. It will be riskier for Benjamin Netanyahu to launch new wars without its big brother covering his back.<\/div>
The Israeli prime minister continues to use bellicose language. But his relationship with Trump has soured and opinion polls \u200bsuggest he will lose a general election that must be held by October.<\/div>
The conflict also had negatives for Europe. The continent\u2019s lack of energy security has been exposed again. After weaning itself off Russian hydrocarbons, its dependency on Gulf supplies \u200bcreated another vulnerability. Trump has also further weakened the NATO defence alliance in anger over Europe\u2019s failure to support his war. Washington has started a review of its troop deployments to the continent.<\/div>
That said, Europe stood up to U.S. arm-twisting and last week\u2019s Group of Seven summit \u200cwas more harmonious \u2060than the previous year\u2019s gathering of leading advanced industrial nations. The big European powers \u2014 France, Germany and the United Kingdom \u2014 were also united in their approach over Iran. This is in stark contrast to Europe\u2019s divisions during the Iraq and Libyan wars earlier this century.<\/div>
By putting distance between themselves and Trump, the European powers have gained some kudos in the rest of the world. Too often, developing countries in the \u201cglobal South\u201d saw Europe as the U.S.\u2019s little helper. It now has a better chance to convene an alliance of \u201cmiddle powers\u201d not totally under the thumb of either the United States or China.<\/div>

MANAGING THE RISKS<\/h2>
The war\u2019s geopolitical risks may not end up being that severe. First, the United States and Iran plan to turn their ceasefire into a \u200bpermanent peace deal, under which Tehran will get $300 billion in \u200binvestment as well as sanctions relief in return for \u2060some limits on its freedom to enrich nuclear material. Though the path to any lasting agreement is bound to be rocky, Iran may yet conclude that prosperity and peace is better than conflict.<\/div>
Second, China may not abuse its increased power by invading Taiwan, which it covets. While a weakened Washington is now less likely to ride to Taipei\u2019s rescue, the Iran war \u200bhas also made clear that overwhelming military might does not guarantee victory, especially when the weaker party can unleash swarms of drones.<\/div>
A lot hinges on the outcome of the \u200bwar in Ukraine, where Kyiv\u2019s recent \u2060successes on the battlefield and attacking critical infrastructure may force Moscow to a stalemate. Although the Iran war has given Russia a temporary financial boost, its economy is hurting and President Vladimir Putin\u2019s poll rating has fallen.<\/div>
Last year Trump tried to force Ukraine into a bad deal with Russia, arguing that its President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had no \u201ccards\u201d. The U.S. president accepted at the G7 last week that Kyiv was in a stronger position and even signed<\/svg>, opens new tab<\/span> up to language promising further pressure on Moscow. While Ukraine cannot rely on Trump, there is now \u2060a lower risk \u200bthat he will bully it into accepting Russia\u2019s terms.<\/div>
The EU has a great opportunity to swing in behind Ukraine. The biggest single thing it can \u200bdo is to use the 210 billion euros of frozen Russian state assets sitting in the bloc to help Kyiv. If it can tilt the war in Ukraine\u2019s favour without much help from Washington, it will show it is not a geopolitical pygmy. It will also ram home the message that \u200baggression does not pay. Coming on top of Trump\u2019s setback in Iran, that would shift the global balance of power back in favour of those who believe in diplomacy and international law.<\/div>
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Breakingviews<\/strong>Reuters Breakingviews is the world’s leading source of agenda-setting financial insight. As the Reuters brand for financial commentary, we dissect the big business and economic stories as they break around the world every day. A global team of about 30 correspondents in New York, London, Hong Kong and other major cities provides expert analysis in real time.Sign up for a free trial of our full service at https:\/\/www.breakingviews.com\/trial and follow us on X @Breakingviews and at www.breakingviews.com. All opinions expressed are those of the authors.<\/div>