{"id":3062,"date":"2026-06-27T06:41:51","date_gmt":"2026-06-27T06:41:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062"},"modified":"2026-06-27T06:41:51","modified_gmt":"2026-06-27T06:41:51","slug":"falling-energy-prices-wont-defuse-rising-risk-of-civil-unrest-in-emerging-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062","title":{"rendered":"Falling energy prices won&#8217;t defuse rising risk of civil unrest in emerging markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>Summary<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>JOHANNESBURG, June 26 (Reuters) &#8211; A drop in oil \u200bprices after a fragile U.S.-Iran truce has helped ease immediate inflationary pressure in many emerging markets, but cheaper oil alone will not defuse \u200cthe threat of civil unrest as the damage to household finances has already been done, analysts say.<\/div>\n<div>Countries from Kenya to Indonesia and Bolivia have seen protests in recent weeks linked to energy price hikes and the rising cost of living.<\/div>\n<div>Global civil unrest hit a six-year high in the second quarter of 2026, UK-based global risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft told Reuters. It produces a quarterly index tracking recorded protest \u200bevents globally over a rolling 12-month period, measuring their frequency, scale and severity.<\/div>\n<div>Oil prices have fallen toward pre-conflict levels, with Brent nearing $70 a barrel after \u200ban accord last week between Washington and Tehran reopened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/div>\n<div>But months of elevated energy costs have \u2060already taken their toll. Oil prices remain volatile and any fall in price of oil or other commodities as trade through the Strait of Hormuz resumes will take \u200btime to filter through to consumers.<\/div>\n<div>&#8220;Inflationary pressure from the disruption to shipping and damage to energy infrastructure will continue well into the second half of 2026,&#8221; said Torbjorn \u200bSoltvedt, head of EMEA at Verisk Maplecroft.<\/div>\n<div>Iraq has seen the sharpest proportional rise in protest activity among emerging markets over the past year, followed by Turkey, according to Verisk Maplecroft&#8217;s civil unrest index, which measures protest size, fatalities and commercial property damage.<\/div>\n<div>India &#8211; already the country with the highest risk of protests &#8211; has also seen a marked increase in demonstrations since the second quarter of \u200blast year, according to the index.<\/div>\n<div>Several major emerging markets have worsened in the past 12 months. Brazil has seen its risk score deteriorate significantly, while the score \u200bfor Iran, which saw huge anti-government protests before a crackdown earlier this year, has worsened sharply over the same period.<\/div>\n<h2>DIFFICULT CHOICES<\/h2>\n<div>Not all governments face the same choices. Countries with relatively stronger \u200cfiscal buffers \u2060such as Indonesia and the Philippines, can absorb part of the shock through subsidies, said Carmen Altenkirch, emerging market sovereign analyst at Aviva Investors.<\/div>\n<div>Those with weaker fiscal positions face a dilemma: pass higher prices on to households and risk unrest, or absorb the cost and slow fiscal consolidation.<\/div>\n<div>&#8220;Tighter public finances contribute to rising inequality and poverty, both of which are important drivers of risk,&#8221; said Soltvedt at Verisk Maplecroft.<\/div>\n<div>A small group of emerging economies &#8211; including Bangladesh, Pakistan, Kenya and Nigeria &#8211; have seen slight improvements in \u200btheir level of civil unrest risk \u200bover the past year, but all remain \u2060firmly in high-risk territory.<\/div>\n<div>Looking ahead, Verisk Maplecroft flags India, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Turkey among those among those most at risk.<\/div>\n<div>Jervin Naidoo, political analyst at Oxford Economics, flags Ethiopia, Tanzania, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria and South Africa \u200bas countries to watch.<\/div>\n<div>&#8220;Early signs of protests around fuel are something of a foreshadowing for the rest of the continent,&#8221; \u200bNaidoo said.<\/div>\n<div>Ratings agency Moody&#8217;s \u2060said the risk of negative rating actions depends on whether governments&#8217; responses weaken fiscal trajectories.<\/div>\n<div>Being under a programme with the International Monetary Fund can add complexity, as the Fund has urged governments to avoid broad subsidies.<\/div>\n<div>&#8220;This is where you have to balance domestic politics versus what international lenders want you to do,&#8221; Naidoo said. Kenya and Mozambique are among \u2060countries looking for \u200ba fresh programme with the IMF.<\/div>\n<div>Bond investors are likely to tolerate fiscal measures that are temporary \u200band targeted, said Nicholas Sauer at Robeco.<\/div>\n<div>Others say the direction of travel on fuel subsidy reform in emerging markets has been broadly right.<\/div>\n<div>&#8220;If you compare today&#8217;s subsidies with 2022, there is a very clear trend \u200bof fuel subsidy reduction,&#8221; said Carlos de Sousa at Vontobel. But with the ceasefire fragile, pressure could rebuild.<\/div>\n<div>(This story has been refiled to fix the format)<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3060\">China\u2019s Geely to ship first Lotus EVs to Canada in July under Carney-Xi deal, ambassador says<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3058\">Germany, Poland poised for soaring temperatures as heatwave moves east<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3056\">Volkswagen Law: the unique structure behind Europe\u2019s biggest carmaker<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A drop in oil \u200bprices after a fragile U.S.-Iran truce has helped ease immediate inflationary pressure in many emerging markets, but cheaper oil alone will not defuse \u200cthe threat of civil unrest as the damage to household finances has already been done, analysts say.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3061,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[21],"class_list":["post-3062","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-energy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Falling energy prices won&#039;t defuse rising risk of civil unrest in emerging markets - Reliable Moving Crews<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Falling energy prices won&#039;t defuse rising risk of civil unrest in emerging markets - Reliable Moving Crews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A drop in oil \u200bprices after a fragile U.S.-Iran truce has helped ease immediate inflationary pressure in many emerging markets, but cheaper oil alone will not defuse \u200cthe threat of civil unrest as the damage to household finances has already been done, analysts say.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Reliable Moving Crews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-27T06:41:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/?p=3062#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/?p=3062\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/34f02a869ba60b78ae3d994f205e0d24\"},\"headline\":\"Falling energy prices won&#8217;t defuse rising risk of civil unrest in emerging markets\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-27T06:41:51+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/?p=3062\"},\"wordCount\":713,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/?p=3062#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/d0ce5cc839e02830b39a57dfcaf7b4a4.avif\",\"keywords\":[\"Energy\"],\"articleSection\":[\"News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/?p=3062#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/?p=3062\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/?p=3062\",\"name\":\"Falling energy prices won't defuse rising risk of civil unrest in emerging markets - Reliable Moving Crews\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/?p=3062#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/?p=3062#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/d0ce5cc839e02830b39a57dfcaf7b4a4.avif\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-27T06:41:51+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/34f02a869ba60b78ae3d994f205e0d24\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/?p=3062#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/?p=3062\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/?p=3062#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/d0ce5cc839e02830b39a57dfcaf7b4a4.avif\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/d0ce5cc839e02830b39a57dfcaf7b4a4.avif\",\"width\":1920,\"height\":1005},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/?p=3062#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Falling energy prices won&#8217;t defuse rising risk of civil unrest in emerging markets\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"Reliable Moving Crews\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/34f02a869ba60b78ae3d994f205e0d24\",\"name\":\"admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"admin\"},\"sameAs\":[\"http:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/reliablemovingcrews.com\\\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Falling energy prices won't defuse rising risk of civil unrest in emerging markets - Reliable Moving Crews","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Falling energy prices won't defuse rising risk of civil unrest in emerging markets - Reliable Moving Crews","og_description":"A drop in oil \u200bprices after a fragile U.S.-Iran truce has helped ease immediate inflationary pressure in many emerging markets, but cheaper oil alone will not defuse \u200cthe threat of civil unrest as the damage to household finances has already been done, analysts say.","og_url":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062","og_site_name":"Reliable Moving Crews","article_published_time":"2026-06-27T06:41:51+00:00","author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"admin","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/34f02a869ba60b78ae3d994f205e0d24"},"headline":"Falling energy prices won&#8217;t defuse rising risk of civil unrest in emerging markets","datePublished":"2026-06-27T06:41:51+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062"},"wordCount":713,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/d0ce5cc839e02830b39a57dfcaf7b4a4.avif","keywords":["Energy"],"articleSection":["News"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062","url":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062","name":"Falling energy prices won't defuse rising risk of civil unrest in emerging markets - Reliable Moving Crews","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/d0ce5cc839e02830b39a57dfcaf7b4a4.avif","datePublished":"2026-06-27T06:41:51+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/34f02a869ba60b78ae3d994f205e0d24"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/d0ce5cc839e02830b39a57dfcaf7b4a4.avif","contentUrl":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/d0ce5cc839e02830b39a57dfcaf7b4a4.avif","width":1920,"height":1005},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3062#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Falling energy prices won&#8217;t defuse rising risk of civil unrest in emerging markets"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/","name":"Reliable Moving Crews","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/34f02a869ba60b78ae3d994f205e0d24","name":"admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"admin"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com"],"url":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?author=1"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3062","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3062"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3062\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3061"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3062"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3062"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3062"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}