{"id":3420,"date":"2026-07-01T08:10:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T08:10:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3420"},"modified":"2026-07-01T08:10:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T08:10:11","slug":"share-and-bond-markets-turn-hesitant-dollar-muscles-yen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3420","title":{"rendered":"Share and bond markets turn hesitant, dollar muscles yen"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>Summary<\/li>\n<li>Companies<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>SYDNEY, July 1 (Reuters) &#8211; Asian share markets started the new quarter in a cautious mood on Wednesday as talks between the United States and Iran hit new hurdles, while investors \u200bstayed alert for possible Japanese intervention as the yen plumbed fresh 40-year lows.<\/div>\n<div>Tehran said on Tuesday it would not meet with top U.S. envoys who had flown to the \u200cregion, with the two sides still far apart on a framework that would fully open the Strait of Hormuz.<\/div>\n<div>Bond markets were also under pressure after U.S. Treasury yields spiked overnight as futures narrowed the odds on rate hikes from the Federal Reserve ahead of crucial jobs figures on Thursday.<\/div>\n<div>All eyes will thus be on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh when he appears at a European Central Bank conference later in the session, for any guidance on the need for a tightening.<\/div>\n<div>Unfortunately for traders, \u200bWarsh has long been against the Fed providing forward guidance and may keep his policy cards close to his chest.<\/div>\n<div>Futures imply a 33% probability the Fed could hike rates at its next \u200bmeeting later this month, while a September move is priced between 67% and 88%.<\/div>\n<div>Equity investors are betting the coming earnings season will be bright enough to \u2060offset the rate risk and continue to pile into favoured tech trades.<\/div>\n<div>Japan&#8217;s Nikkei (.N225)<svg><\/svg><span>, opens new tab<\/span> climbed another 0.8%, having surged 37% last quarter. The rush for everything tech helped boost sentiment among big manufacturers to heights not seen \u200bsince 2018, while manufacturing activity boasted its best quarter since 2014 as new orders surged.<\/div>\n<div>South Korea&#8217;s main index (.KS11)<svg><\/svg><span>, opens new tab<\/span> slipped 0.9%, having risen an eye-watering 68% in the second quarter on soaring AI-related demand for semiconductors.<\/div>\n<div>The boom delivered \u200bthe fastest export growth in nearly 50 years in June as shipments of semiconductors surged almost 200%. As a result, South Korea became the fourth country in the world to reach a monthly export value of $100 billion, after Germany, China and the United States.<\/div>\n<div>MSCI&#8217;s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MISX00000PUS)<svg><\/svg><span>, opens new tab<\/span> firmed 0.2%, while Chinese blue chips (.CSI300)<svg><\/svg><span>, opens new tab<\/span> rose 0.3%.<\/div>\n<div>In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures were flat, while FTSE futures dipped 0.3%. S&amp;P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both eased 0.2%, \u200bafter making solid gains overnight.<\/div>\n<h2>LOT RESTING ON EARNINGS<\/h2>\n<div>A pause was understandable given Wall Street just notched up its biggest quarter since 2020, led by an 88% climb in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.<\/div>\n<div>&#8220;The historical record certainly \u200bfavours the bulls,&#8221; noted Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone. &#8220;Since 2008, Nasdaq futures have recorded only one negative July.&#8221;<\/div>\n<div>&#8220;The upcoming earnings season will therefore be critical in determining whether earnings expectations continue to improve and whether portfolio \u200callocations continue \u2060shifting towards technology.&#8221;<\/div>\n<div>The major banks kick off reporting from mid-July, and analysts have high expectations for profits in the tech sector and more broadly.<\/div>\n<div>Analysts at Goldman Sachs note the consensus is for earnings per share to grow 22% on a year earlier. AI infrastructure stocks are expected to contribute nearly 60% of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth, with Micron (MU.O)<svg><\/svg><span>, opens new tab<\/span> and Nvidia (NVDA.O)<svg><\/svg><span>, opens new tab<\/span> together accounting for more than 40%.<\/div>\n<div>Strong earnings will be needed to offset the attractiveness of higher bond yields and the risk of a rise in the cash rate. Yields on 10-year Treasuries stood at 4.55%, having jumped almost 9 basis points on Tuesday.<\/div>\n<div>The rise helped lift the dollar \u200bto a fresh four-decade peak on the yen at \u200b162.84 , extending a bull run that stretches back \u2060to early May.<\/div>\n<div>The climb has drawn the usual threats of intervention from Tokyo, though the authorities seem reluctant to act, having spent almost 12 trillion yen through April and May to little lasting effect.<\/div>\n<div>Tim Baker, a macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, noted the latest move had been more about dollar strength than yen \u200bweakness, with the yen having been broadly steady against other major currencies for months now.<\/div>\n<div>A steep slide in oil prices had also benefited Japan greatly \u200bas a net energy importer, \u2060he added, while real yield spreads had widened slightly in the yen&#8217;s favour.<\/div>\n<div>&#8220;The upshot is that our fair value model has steadily dropped, now sitting in the low 150s,&#8221; said Baker. &#8220;Japan policymakers may be sitting back and hoping for dollar strength to cease, so we think yen weakness will be limited from here.&#8221;<\/div>\n<div>The euro was flat at $1.1409 , just above the recent 13-month trough of $1.1325.<\/div>\n<div>Inflation data for the European Union due later are forecast to show a \u2060dip to \u200b3.0% in May, from 3.2% the previous month, and a further decline is likely as lower oil prices feed through.<\/div>\n<div>Investors no \u200blonger think a July rate rise is likely from the ECB, putting the chance at just 32%. Indeed, markets imply that one further hike to 2.5% could mark the end of this tightening cycle.<\/div>\n<div>As for oil, Brent crude was up 0.3% at $73.19, but a \u200bworld away from its May peak of $126.41, while U.S. crude added 0.4% to $69.74 a barrel.<\/div>\n<div>Gold remained out of favour after a very tough quarter, easing 0.7% to $3,977 an ounce .<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3419\">The next Iran war may come sooner than you think<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3417\">A million vintage loans slow Greece\u2019s economic recovery<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=3415\">Russia approved secret China military training at top level, sources say<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Asian share markets started the new quarter in a cautious mood on Wednesday as talks between the United States and Iran hit new hurdles, while investors \u200bstayed alert for possible Japanese intervention as the yen plumbed fresh 40-year lows.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":263,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[54],"class_list":["post-3420","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-stocks"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - 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