{"id":955,"date":"2026-06-04T08:39:03","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T08:39:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=955"},"modified":"2026-06-04T08:39:03","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T08:39:03","slug":"more-oil-escapes-hormuz-keeping-traders-guessing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reliablemovingcrews.com\/?p=955","title":{"rendered":"More oil escapes Hormuz, keeping traders guessing"},"content":{"rendered":"
LONDON, June 4 (Reuters) – The trickle of tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz has gathered pace in recent weeks, as traders adopt stealth measures to make the crossing. While this is freeing some of the vast oil inventories trapped in the Gulf, it does not signal a slow return to normalcy. Instead, it previews the opaque, fragmented energy market the Iran war is set \u200bto leave in its wake.<\/div>
More than four months into the conflict, the U.S. and Iran are still struggling to hammer out an agreement to formally end the war and \u200cfully reopen the narrow waterway.<\/div>
The near-total closure of Hormuz stranded more than 13 million barrels of oil per day within the Gulf, forcing producers to shut down oilfields and refineries, triggering supply shortfalls and economic strain across major importing nations.<\/div>
Traffic through the strait remains a fraction of pre-war levels. On the face of it, an average of just three tankers a day has crossed in and out of Hormuz since the conflict began – roughly one-tenth of normal volumes – according to shipping monitors including \u200bLSEG and Kpler.<\/div>
But a closer look at oil stocks tells a more nuanced story.<\/div>

IN THE DARK<\/h2>
An analysis of the huge volumes stored on tankers inside the Gulf suggests transit activity has quietly accelerated. It \u200bpoints to a growing number of ships leaving the region “under the radar” of satellite tracking systems.<\/div>
More vessels appear to be switching off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) \u2060before and after transiting the strait, adopting tactics long used by Iran to evade Western sanctions.<\/div>
In practice, tankers can “go dark” for days around the crossing, only to reappear weeks later near their destination.<\/div>
Shipping analytics firm Vortexa \u200bestimates that around 65% of outbound laden tankers transited in \u201cdark\u201d mode in May, showing how widespread the practice has become.<\/div>
That opacity is distorting the market’s line of sight. Reduced visibility into cargo movements and destinations makes it harder \u200bto gauge the flows underpinning benchmark pricing.<\/div>
That makes alternative indicators increasingly important.<\/div>
One key gauge of the pace of outflows is \u201coil on water\u201d in the Gulf, or the volume of oil stored on tankers trapped behind the strait.<\/div>
Levels have dropped from a peak of 184 million barrels on March 22 to around 148 million barrels this week, according to Kpler data, implying an average drawdown rate of roughly 500,000 bpd.<\/div>
Crucially, that pace has accelerated over the past month. Since the start of May, \u200bdepletion has increased to around 710,000 bpd, according to ROI analysis. That offers further evidence that flows out of the Gulf, while still constrained, are inching higher.<\/div>
Exactly which routes these dark tankers are taking remains unclear \u2013 \u200bas the term \u201cdark\u201d suggests. Many are likely using corridors designated by Iran, which has allowed limited volumes through the strait under bilateral arrangements with Asian governments including Pakistan, India, China and Japan. This underscores the region\u2019s heavy dependence on \u200cGulf supply. Some \u2060vessels may be paying Iran a fee for safe passage.<\/div>
Other vessels may be taking routes closer to Oman\u2019s coastline, potentially with the tacit or active support of the U.S. Navy, which continues to play a stabilising role in regional maritime security.<\/div>
The situation remains fluid and could shift quickly. Iran could tighten its grip on shipping at any moment, particularly if negotiations with the U.S. continue to stall.<\/div>

WHAT RECOVERY LOOKS LIKE<\/h2>
After more than three months of severe economic disruption, every barrel exported offers a lifeline to revenue-starved Gulf producers such as Iraq and Kuwait, and desperate buyers in Asia.<\/div>
But a sustained recovery will require far greater clarity and \u200bstability around Hormuz.<\/div>
Producers are unlikely to restart the roughly \u200b11 million bpd of oilfields shut in during \u2060the conflict without confidence that exports can flow reliably.<\/div>
One key constraint is logistical: the return of empty tankers to the Gulf. Without a steady inflow of vessels to load cargoes, onshore storage tanks will remain near capacity, preventing the restart of shut-in production.<\/div>
That crucial rebalancing – laden ships leaving and empty ships returning – has \u200byet to materialise at scale.<\/div>
Shipowners and charterers remain wary of sending vessels into a region where the risk of becoming stranded remains high. Insurance premiums continue \u200bto reflect that elevated risk, \u2060reinforcing a cautious approach to redeploying fleets.<\/div>
Ultimately, the market may never return to normal, even if a political breakthrough officially \u201creopens\u201d the strait.<\/div>
Tehran is seeking to retain control over traffic in the waterway and introduce a tolling system, potentially reshaping how one of the world\u2019s most critical oil chokepoints operates. That would represent an untenable situation for Gulf producers, forcing them to find alternate routes. And if they can\u2019t erode Iran\u2019s position strategically, they may seek to do \u2060so militarily.<\/div>
The \u200bshift toward a more opaque trading environment in the Middle East may be providing some marginal relief. But the fragmented, dangerous reality \u200bit reflects means any respite may be short-lived.<\/div>
(The opinions expressed here are those of Ron Bousso, a columnist for Reuters.)<\/div>
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