Is Trump ready to go back to being the ‘peace’ president?

WASHINGTON, June 18 (Reuters) – We have a deal. Or do we? The U.S. and Iran have signed ceasefire documents launching 60-day negotiations to resolve the countries’ differences. Whether it holds — or collapses — is the question now hanging over markets, diplomacy and Donald Trump’s presidency.

Three times on Wednesday, Trump referenced an unlikely historical figure to explain his ​Iran deal: Herbert Hoover. “The one president I did not want to be was the late great Herbert Hoover,” Trump told reporters in France, ‌including my colleague, Steve Holland. The Republican Hoover served as U.S. president during the 1929 market crash that led to the Great Depression and faced criticism over his allies’ promise to Americans of a better economic future and “a chicken in every pot.”

The historical comparison seemingly came out of left field – but it was revealing.

Trump has pursued a hawkish policy in Iran for months. He has threatened to end ​civilization, topple bridges and launch a ground invasion, cheered on by the more hawkish voices in his movement, such as U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, and international ​partners, especially Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

He also brushed off the economic consequences, saying at various points that he expected higher oil ⁠prices, loved inflation and was not motivated “not even a little bit” to strike a deal because of Americans’ financial situation.

In recent weeks, however, his actions and private conversations suggest a sharp ​shift. A clearer pattern has emerged of a president scarred by the war with Iran and reticent to take more risks as the financial costs from the conflict add ​up.

Trump repeatedly backed down from the civilization threats and backed off his initial demands for regime change. He settled for signing on Wednesday a three-page outline that he has called “a little conceptual.” It gives Iran some immediate benefits while leaving many of Trump’s war aims to future diplomacy.

Our reporting shows he has listened to arguments by his aides that an extended conflict could tank his presidency, publicly telegraphed a rupture with Netanyahu and mused ​about the negative stock market impact of war.

“I didn’t want to see economic catastrophe,” Trump said on Wednesday. “If you kept this going, that could have happened.” (Oil prices fell on ​Thursday to their lowest since before the start of the Iran war at the end of February.)

Sources have been telling my colleagues and me for weeks that the White House is more ‌concerned about the ⁠war, the elections and the economy than they let on. A collapse of this ceasefire could mean not just the resumption of war but the resurgence of inflation, oil prices and the biggest risk to Trump’s power if Republicans lose control of Congress in November’s midterm elections.

But if it lasts, the ceasefire may keep him from being compared to the president whose legacy he fears the most.

Trump was reunited this week with world leaders he’s had strained relations with over trade ​and the Iran war. He was in France for the Group of Seven meeting. There, he appeared to consult on a hot mic ​with Canadian Prime Minister ⁠Mark Carney about Chinese electric vehicles, huddled with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy about Russia’s “offensive” military operations and dined at Versailles with French President Emmanuel Macron. It was a relatively warm turn for a president who has threatened to annex Canada, chastised Zelenskiy for not making a deal with Russia and publicly mused about marital difficulties in the Macron family. Cooling Iran tensions have also ⁠eased relations ​between the U.S. and its oldest allies, though rifts remain.

June 19: Opening of the ​Obama Presidential Center

June 23: Primary elections in Maryland, New York and Utah

June 24: Trump expected to speak at “Great American State Fair”

June 27: Louisiana Senate runoff