Trump’s Iran folly opens slim path to safer world

MANI, GREECE, June 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) – The United States called its attack on Iran “Operation Epic Fury”. Now that Washington has signed a ceasefire deal with Tehran that secures none of its original aims, it looks more like an epic folly. While that is bad for the U.S. and President Donald Trump, the conflict opens a slim path to a safer world.

The war has caused great hardship and brings many ​dangers from the Middle East to China and Russia. Still the failure of United States and its ally Israel shows aggression against a weaker opponent does not always pay. With Europe a surprising ‌winner from the conflict, a better global balance of power is just possible.

The three-and-a-half-month conflict may have increased three geopolitical risks. The first is that Iran could emerge stronger after surviving a massive onslaught from the world’s superpower. With Washington unlikely to want to restart hostilities, Tehran may have a freer hand to threaten its neighbours in the Gulf and Israel.

Second, the global balance of power has shifted in China’s favour. Beijing has presented itself as a reliable partner which follows international law at a time when Washington has gone rogue. An increase in China’s clout ​is dangerous because the People’s Republic has also thrown its weight around — both in territorial disputes with its neighbours such as Taiwan and the Philippines and by using economic coercion with, among others, the European Union (EU) and Japan.

Third, the Iran war ​has been mildly positive for Russia. The sharply higher oil price combined with the relaxation of U.S. sanctions against its hydrocarbon exports have temporarily refilled the Kremlin’s coffers.

Despite these ⁠dangers, the war has silver linings. For a start, both the U.S.’s and Israel’s wings have been clipped.

Trump is looking increasingly like a spent volcano. The war has been unpopular with the voters and prediction markets now suggest his Republican Party may lose, opens new tab ​its narrow majority in both houses of Congress in November’s mid-term elections. Some Republican members of Congress now oppose the president on both domestic and foreign policy.

Trump will continue to huff and puff. But further large-scale aggression seems less likely. In particular, ​the risk that he will invade Greenland, as he threatened to do in January, has diminished.

Meanwhile, Israel will find it harder to lash out against its enemies because it will not be able to rely so much on the United States. Support for Israel has declined, opens new tab across the U.S. political spectrum, both as a result of the Iran War and Gaza conflict. It will be riskier for Benjamin Netanyahu to launch new wars without its big brother covering his back.

The Israeli prime minister continues to use bellicose language. But his relationship with Trump has soured and opinion polls ​suggest he will lose a general election that must be held by October.

The conflict also had negatives for Europe. The continent’s lack of energy security has been exposed again. After weaning itself off Russian hydrocarbons, its dependency on Gulf supplies ​created another vulnerability. Trump has also further weakened the NATO defence alliance in anger over Europe’s failure to support his war. Washington has started a review of its troop deployments to the continent.

That said, Europe stood up to U.S. arm-twisting and last week’s Group of Seven summit ‌was more harmonious ⁠than the previous year’s gathering of leading advanced industrial nations. The big European powers — France, Germany and the United Kingdom — were also united in their approach over Iran. This is in stark contrast to Europe’s divisions during the Iraq and Libyan wars earlier this century.

By putting distance between themselves and Trump, the European powers have gained some kudos in the rest of the world. Too often, developing countries in the “global South” saw Europe as the U.S.’s little helper. It now has a better chance to convene an alliance of “middle powers” not totally under the thumb of either the United States or China.

The war’s geopolitical risks may not end up being that severe. First, the United States and Iran plan to turn their ceasefire into a ​permanent peace deal, under which Tehran will get $300 billion in ​investment as well as sanctions relief in return for ⁠some limits on its freedom to enrich nuclear material. Though the path to any lasting agreement is bound to be rocky, Iran may yet conclude that prosperity and peace is better than conflict.

Second, China may not abuse its increased power by invading Taiwan, which it covets. While a weakened Washington is now less likely to ride to Taipei’s rescue, the Iran war ​has also made clear that overwhelming military might does not guarantee victory, especially when the weaker party can unleash swarms of drones.

A lot hinges on the outcome of the ​war in Ukraine, where Kyiv’s recent ⁠successes on the battlefield and attacking critical infrastructure may force Moscow to a stalemate. Although the Iran war has given Russia a temporary financial boost, its economy is hurting and President Vladimir Putin’s poll rating has fallen.

Last year Trump tried to force Ukraine into a bad deal with Russia, arguing that its President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had no “cards”. The U.S. president accepted at the G7 last week that Kyiv was in a stronger position and even signed, opens new tab up to language promising further pressure on Moscow. While Ukraine cannot rely on Trump, there is now ⁠a lower risk ​that he will bully it into accepting Russia’s terms.

The EU has a great opportunity to swing in behind Ukraine. The biggest single thing it can ​do is to use the 210 billion euros of frozen Russian state assets sitting in the bloc to help Kyiv. If it can tilt the war in Ukraine’s favour without much help from Washington, it will show it is not a geopolitical pygmy. It will also ram home the message that ​aggression does not pay. Coming on top of Trump’s setback in Iran, that would shift the global balance of power back in favour of those who believe in diplomacy and international law.

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