Trading Day: Tech outlook is cloudy

ORLANDO, Florida, June 25 (Reuters) – It was a day of modest reversals across currencies and commodities on Thursday, to varying degrees, as the dollar rally and oil slump paused for breath. Meanwhile, stocks in Europe and Asia rose, but megacap tech weakness weighed on Wall Street.

In my column today, I look ​at the wild price swings that have marked Wall Street and other key markets in the first half of the ‌year, and why turbulence shouldn’t be mistaken for decline. There is still life in the AI-fueled equity boom.

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.

Today’s Key Market Moves

Today’s Talking Points

* What’s not to hike?

Headline annual PCE inflation is officially above 4% for the first time in three years, figures on Thursday showed. With CPI also above 4%, the two benchmark headline measures of U.S. inflation are both more ​than double the Fed’s 2% target.

This means the Fed should be hiking rates, right? Maybe. The month-on-month PCE data were a bit softer than ​expected and oil is down 40% from its recent peak, back to pre-Iran war levels. Traders have removed 15 bps from implied Fed tightening by year-end in ‌recent days. ⁠More of that to come?

* If the withdrawal cap fits

Private debt markets remain extremely choppy under the surface. Regulatory filings released on Thursday show that investors in Ares Management’s $23 billion flagship private credit fund sought to withdraw 14.4% of shares in Q2, up from 11.6% in Q1. Redemptions were again capped at 5%.

Earlier this week, Apollo put a 5% cap on redemptions from its ADS $26 billion private credit fund after investors sought to withdraw 17% ​of shares. There has been little ​spillover into public markets so ⁠far, but sentiment remains bleak – WisdomTree’s private credit and alt income ETF is retesting all-time lows.

* Hedge funds and Treasuries

The hedge fund “basis trade” story has been out of the headlines lately, but a new Fed paper, opens new tab this week ​dissecting hedge funds’ exposure to U.S. Treasuries puts it back under the spotlight. There are some big ​numbers in there.

Hedge funds’ ⁠exposure to Treasuries is $4 trillion, they hold 8.5% of the market and repo cash borrowing to finance these positions is $3 trillion. Bond holdings and repo borrowing doubled between 2023 and 2025. The question, as always, is what systemic risk does this carry? As yet, none, it seems.

What could move markets tomorrow?

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, ​under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.