One stage of the Iran war has ended, but the world may be mistaking a pre-election pause for lasting peace. Tehran’s economic leverage will likely remain strong through the U.S. midterm elections in November, but could weaken once the votes are counted, raising the risk of renewed confrontation afterward.

While oil and gas are once again flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, the closure of the vital waterway for over 100 days could prove to be a turning point in global energy markets. The Arab oil embargo of 1973, a similarly disruptive supply shock, offers clues about where we might be headed.