The biggest oil supply shock in decades has entered its fourth month – with no resolution in sight as neither the U.S. nor Iran appears willing to budge – yet the market has settled into an eerie calm. This disconnect reflects an uncomfortable reality: the biggest drivers of today’s energy market are a host of unknowns.

The trickle of tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz has gathered pace in recent weeks, as traders adopt stealth measures to make the crossing. While this is freeing some of the vast oil inventories trapped in the Gulf, it does not signal a slow return to normalcy. Instead, it previews the opaque, fragmented energy market the Iran war is set ​to leave in its wake.