One stage of the Iran war has ended, but the world may be mistaking a pre-election pause for lasting peace. Tehran’s economic leverage will likely remain strong through the U.S. midterm elections in November, but could weaken once the votes are counted, raising the risk of renewed confrontation afterward.
Tag: OPEC
Crude prices may be back near levels seen before the Iran war, but the surge in oil exports from the Middle East following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is creating a chaotic market that could take months to settle.
While oil and gas are once again flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, the closure of the vital waterway for over 100 days could prove to be a turning point in global energy markets. The Arab oil embargo of 1973, a similarly disruptive supply shock, offers clues about where we might be headed.
Iraq will be compelled to consider all available options if its OPEC quota is not significantly increased, a senior Iraqi oil ministry official told Reuters on Thursday.
Ships have begun sailing through the Strait of Hormuz under a new scheme by the U.N.’s shipping agency to evacuate vessels trapped there by the conflict, a spokesperson said on Wednesday.
The legal, political and commercial challenges of unwinding restrictions could take years.
Middle East oil producers face a reckoning. The Iran war exposed the dangers of relying on a single chokepoint for vital oil and gas exports, leaving Gulf governments with a clear strategic imperative: diversify – at all costs.
Never bet against Donald Trump? The oil market appears to have made a risky wager from day one of the Iran war: The U.S. president would not allow the conflict to spiral into a full-blown economic crisis. So traders wouldn’t price one in, no matter what was happening with physical supplies.
The U.S.-Iran deal ending months of fighting and reopening the Strait of Hormuz will prompt a collective sigh of relief from energy exporters and importers alike. But the fragile calm may not prevent future flare-ups, casting doubt over how quickly – or fully – tanker traffic through the vital waterway can return to normal.
Saudi Arabia and neighbouring Gulf producers will cheer the eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the ensuing flood of oil risks eroding OPEC’s already fragile grip on the market.