One stage of the Iran war has ended, but the world may be mistaking a pre-election pause for lasting peace. Tehran’s economic leverage will likely remain strong through the U.S. midterm elections in November, but could weaken once the votes are counted, raising the risk of renewed confrontation afterward.

While oil and gas are once again flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, the closure of the vital waterway for over 100 days could prove to be a turning point in global energy markets. The Arab oil embargo of 1973, a similarly disruptive supply shock, offers clues about where we might be headed.

As the world marks the passing of former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan, who died on Monday aged 100, it’s almost fitting that the U.S. central bank is entering a period of “less is more” when it comes to communications — something the “maestro” himself would have approved of.